Issued by The National Weather Service
Memphis, TN
9:22 am CST, Fri., Dec. 31, 2010
... SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME WARM... HUMID... AND UNSTABLE. THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... INCLUDING NORTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IN THESE LOCATIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM CST AND 8 PM CST.
FURTHER EAST... INCLUDING NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TENNESSEE... AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR EAST THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD. IN ADDITION... THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL HERE... BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR EXPECT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST TIMING FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM CST AND MIDNIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE URGED TO REMAIN UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AND PLAN NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS AND GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND IN THE GRAPHICAST SECTION ON THE MEMPHIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN THE EVENT SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AND SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES IMMINENT.
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